Author: Yiling Bai

Market Update

U.S Market

• Stocks higher last week on Easter Holiday
• Job Report was disappointing
• Stocks moved higher today after Fed’s minutes
• Members of FOM: appropriate to raise interest rate at June meeting
• Central bank doesn’t need a rise in core inflation before normalizing policy
• Dow up 0.2%, S&P up 0.3% and Nasdaq up 0.8%
• U.S crude oil dropped a lot

Foreign Market

• Europe’s stimulus package has caused borrowing cost to decrease significantly
• Several countries to issue 5- yr bond with negative yield
• Hong Kong stock hit seven year high

Business

• FedEx announced to purchase TNT Express for 4.4 billion Euro in cash
• Royal Dutch Shell to purchase BG Group for 69.6 billion in cash and share.(horizontal merger)

Market Update

U.S Market

• The benchmark U.S oil price jumped 5.2% to its largest one- day gain in nearly two months
• Lower than expected economic data such as private employment and manufacturing data, caused stocks to fall

Foreign Market

• Greece failed on Tuesday to reach an initial deal on reforms with its lenders, a precondition for financial.
• Chinese officials indicated that there is room to ease monetary policy to help boost economic growth

Business

Go Daddy IPO:

• Internet domain registrar and web hosting company
• IPO priced at 20 per share and opened today at 26.15, 1 41% increase
• IPO raised about $ 440 million
• Revenue rose 52% in last 3 years.

Google Smartbox

• Google announced that it will release its first version of Smartbox soon, a home- friendly, high-tech mailing box system

Stock Pitch

Skyworks Solutions Inc.

Skyworks Strategy

• Diversification
• Industry- Leading Technology
• Customer Relations
• Delivering Operational Excellence

Risk Factors

• Erosion of average selling prices of established products is typical of the semiconductor industry
• The competitive environment in the semiconductor industry
• The availability of raw materials from suppliers
• Environmental Regulations
• Demand for products generally occurs in first fiscal quarter ending in December and he lowest demand for handset products generally occurs in our second fiscal quarter ending in March
• Apple is 30% of their business so apple has a significant influence on its business

Research & Development

• Invested 226.3 million, 212.5 million and 168. Million in research and development activities during the fiscal year ended 2013,2014 and 2015

An interesting Shark tank episode that we watched:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bHSE–rqtw

Market Update

U.S Market

• Crude oil futures rallied 3.6% to 49.21 a barrel, gaining for the fourth day in a row
• Dollar retreats from historic high

Business

Nike: solid fiscal 2015 third quarter result

• Double digit revenue grow
• Excluding currency fluctuation 12% growth in rev
• Including dollar appreciate 7% growth

Kraft and Heinz merge to form the world’s largest food and beverage company

• Merger valued around 48 million
• Post-merger revenue around 38 million

Facebook plans to add reservation booking, online order tracking and custom videos on messenger

Stock Pitch: Coco- cola (KO)

Business Overview

• World’s largest manufacturer, distributor and marketer of non- alcoholic beverage
• Produce both carbonated and non- carbonated beverage
• Has 8.4% global market share.
• Its competitor Pepsi Co holds the NO. 6- 3.6%
• Pepsi defend structure as a beverage and snack foods business—- coke is digging deeper into beverages
• Consistent issuance of dividend

Stock Summary

• Dependency on emerging markets, which have become more volatile in recent times
• 2015 will be transitional years—- rewards 2016-2017 onward.
• And since the start of 2007, Coco- cola has outperformed both Pepsi and the S&P 200 on a total return basis, shares of coco-cola are up 113%, while Pepsi is up 94%

Financials

• Net operating revenue 45998
• Stable cash flows- stocks extremely low price volatility
• Carbonated soft drink volumes declined by 3.2%
• Expenses decreased slightly year to year, except AD—3,499-3,266
• EPS grew 5% in both the quarter and the full year
• The revenue has grown from around 8 million
• ROA 7.46; ROE 22.26; Revenue 46.00 B; Net Income 7.10 B; Gross Profit 28.11 B

In the News

• New product- Fairlife milk
• Product of smaller cans, less calorie, sugar 7.5 oz, 90 cal
• Cloud technology
• 30 billion in developing markets around the world over the next five years
• Management expects 2015 to be a “transition year”
• 16% stake in Keurig Green Mountain

Risk and competitor

• Health and wellness concerns
• Raw materials-corn syrup, aluminum, plastic, oranges, water
• Needs to balance risk of new innovation with low growth rates of established products
• Strength of U.S dollar- broad exposure to foreign currencies
• Competitors: PepsiCo (Pepsi) Cadbury Schweppes (Dr. Pepper)

Market Update

• U.S Economy added 295000 jobs in Feb, which is well above the 240000 expected by economists
• Unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% from 5.7% due to people dropping out of the workforce
• Job opening in the U.S rose 2.4% in Jan to 5 million, reaching a 14 year high
• U.S dollar recently yet again hit multiyear highs against the euro and also multiyear highs against Japanese Yen
• Sweden’s central bank recently further cut its key policy interest rate from -0.1 to- 0.25 and expanded its bond- buying program
• China shares climbed to near seven- year high

Business

• Tencent’s net profit rose 50% from the same quarter last year. Profit mostly driven by online games and mobile games built on its mobile Wechat and QQ platform
• In the 4^th quarter, 82% of Tencent’s revenue was from online games, while advertising revenue only accounted for 13%

Banking Industry

Industry research general steps:

• Business model (product& services model, revenue model)
• Risk factor& macro environment (Top down, Bottom up)
• Case studies on a few companies
• Porter’s Five Forces

Types of Banks

• Commercial banks: deposits and loans: take deposits and make high interest from loans
• Investment Banks: underwrites stock and bond issues, trades, investment management, merger and acquisitions advisory
• Merchant banks: provide capital for equity
• Central banks: regulatory role, lender of last resort

2007-08 Financial& Economic Crises

• Banking Industry Consolidation
• Bail out and moral hazard

Post- Crisis Regulation

• Basel Accords (recommended international standard)
• Volcker Rule: against proprietary trading( Investment banks use their own money to invest instead of clients’ money)

CCAR (Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review)

• Annul stress test
• Capital requirement
• Cost on risk management and compliance

Trends& Opportunities

• Mobile banking
• Predictive banking& Customer Analytics
• Digital and social selling
• New product development

Shake Shack and the Fast Casual Industry

Shake Shack: a Manhattan-based burger joint

IPO: Jan 2015

• With initial price of $21 per dollar
• Hit &45 on the first day of its debut
• Raised $ 105 million
• Operates 663 restaurants, only 31 company- operated
• Menu choices are very limited

Shake Shack’s successful IPO once again proved investors’ appetite for Fast Casual

the Fast Casual Industry

Characterized by:

• Affordability
• High quality ingredients: fresh
• Convenience: fast service
• Customization: flexible offering
• A full view of how the food is prepared
• Higher price as compared to Fast Food Restaurants
• Fast Casual’s Competitiveness
• Consumers look for best value proposition, not necessarily cheapest price
• Emphasis on offering better product but still at an affordable price
• Caters to a heightened interest in healthy food

Risk Factors for Shake Shack:

Competition from similar burger joints

• The Habit restaurant
• McDonald’s and Wendy’s innovative items and attempts at customization
• Risk of over- expansion
• Goal of opening 450 stores may be ambitious
• Risk of lower profits, higher operating costs
• Over reliance on Manhattan for rev and profit margin

Risk of Beef Cost

• SHAK lost $1.4 million in the fourth quarter due to higher cost in beef
• Meat from producers that adhere to more stringent welfare practices and don’t use antibiotics or hormones.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Update

U.S Market:

• 4^th Quarter GDP data down to 2.2% from 2.6% and GPD is expected to be further revised down to 2%
• Auto sales rose in Feb despite poor weather: GM sales up 4.2%; Chrysler sales rose 5.6%
• Dollar continued to strengthen: Hit 11 year-high vs Euro, which fell to $1.1088
• Nasdaq fell below 5000 level on Tuesday

International:

• China lowers growth target to about 7%
• ECB on Thursday is expected to unveil details of bond buying program: 60 billion euro of bonds each month for 18 month
• GDF Suez, a French Energy Company issues 2.5 billion euro of bond including zero coupon bond
• More about zero coupon bond:
• http://www.investopedia.com/terms/z/zero-couponbond.asp

Business:

• J&J is nearing a deal for cancer drug maker Pharmacyclics
• Pharmacyclics has won expanded approval from US health regulators on its breakthrough cancer drug Imbruvica, which is expected to achieve annual peak sales of up to $6 billion
• Shares of Pharmacyclics rose 6.3%
• Abercrombie& Fitch shares down 13.1%, though profit beats expectation
• Germany agreed to pay Airbus 623million euros in loans for the new Airbus A250 wide body jet.
• Airbus has received billions of euro in preferential loans from European government to support the development of new jetliner models.

Stock pitch: Coach (COH)

Overview:

• Founded in 1941 and acquired by Sara Lee Corp. in 1985
• Products: Handbags, Accessories, Footwear, Jewelry, Wearables, etc.
• Main American luxury goods retailer
•  Current Price: $41.95
• Market Cap: 11.85 B
• P/E: 20.93
• Debt/Equity Ratio: 2.27

News:

• 2/15/2015: Quarterly cash dividend of 0.33375 over common share

Risks:

• Seasonality
• Global sourcing risks
• Dependency on global sourcing center
• Intellectual property protection
• Popularity of brand and fads
• Consolidation of retail business

Why Coach:

• Coach lost lots of market share in the past years, the slowdown of competitors could mean a chance to gain back what it lost
• New styles reminiscent of recent fashions seen at current shows
• “Brand Transformation” has had positive outcomes on revenue as well as brand perception
• Recent acquisitions give leverage
• Plans to expand into South and Central America, as well as broadening line of men’s products

Suggestion:

• Long term hold for at least a year

Congratulations on our first stock pitch this year!

Market update

• Euro zone GDP grew 0.3% in the 4^th quarter， above the 0.2% growth expected by economists.
• The European Commission, the ECB and the IMF approved Greece’s 4 month bailout extension after the country submitted a list of reforms that were in line with expectations
• U.S stocks soar to new high; Dow was at record
• Demand for crude oil is growing. Saudi Arabia’s top oil official said, amid new data shows that the world is getting hungry again for petroleum products.
• Share of Nordstrom rose nearly 5% in the quarter, total sales increased 9% to 3.9 billion
• Macy’s ended 2014 with less than 1% revenue growth.
• Target posted its best sales growth in nearly three years which is a sign that shoppers are responding to changes under new Chief Executive.

Interview tips

• Research the employer: the position you are applying for; know the corporation culture
• Focus answers on the characteristics required by the employer
• Use powerful words to describe your competency in those characteristic
• Be concise- make a point, make it clear, and use precise wording.

Interview Format

• STAR:
• Setup: describe the situation, facts and information.
• Task: what was needed to be done?
• Action: describe your action.
• Results: what is the result?
• Similar format: PARADE: Problem; Anticipated consequence; Role; Action; Decision Making Rationale; End Result

Sample Interview Questions:

• What is the toughest group that you have had to get cooperate with?
• Give me an example of a situation in which you made your mind too rapidly.
• How do you determine what constitutes a top priority in scheduling your time?
• Describe your most difficult school course or work project.
• How do you deal with conflict.

 

 

Market Update

• U.S Economy:
• U.S unemployment claims were up to 278000, but the increase is smaller than expected
• The U.S Economy Added 247,000 jobs in January, well above expectation
• Oil tumbled for the second day in a row, with the U.S benchmark slipping back below 50 a barrel.
• Global:
• The ECB to stop accepting Greek debt as collateral
• China reported weaker than expected export(Downto 3.3%) and import data on Sunday, raising concern that China’s growth is slowing.
• Companies:
• Verizon: sell its wireless tower to American Tower for 5.1 bill and its local fixed line assets.
• Time Warner reported 1% decrease in revenue last quarter
• Apple’s market cap reaches 700 bill Giant as the first U.S Company with Market Cap exceeding 700 bill.

 Porter’s Five Force

Porter’s Five forces is an analysis tool to analyze the competition level of a company. Here are the five forces:

1. Easiness of entry for new participants
2. Number and activity of the company’s rivals
3. The possibility of new product
4. Bargaining power of the industry suppliers
5. The consumer’s bargaining powe

For more information on Porter’s Five Forces, please check the video posted on Investopedia:

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/porters-five-forces/

 

 

 

Portfolio Update

• Increased about $10,000 from Dec.
• Allocate money in different industries and different cap scale
• Examples of current industries in our portfolio: pharmaceutical company, airline, financial service, tech company, emerging market, energy, entertainment, consumer goods, telecom.

Interview tips

Typical questions

• Walk me through your resume, tell your story
• Opinion on the market, current events: have an opinion, a thesis. How is the emerging market?
• Technical questions such as stock pitch
• Behavioral questions: How do you deal with stress, conflict, etc. Look at company culture.

Useful knowledge

• Know major economic policy. For example, the interest rate may increase soon, how is it gonna influence the market?
• Know differences and relationship between two assets. Eg bond market and stock market.
• Know foreign exchange rate and how is our currency doing.

Market update
ISM index is at 58.7 in Nov., which is a little lower than what it was in Oct.
In china, the HSBC purchasing managers index dropped to six months low, raising fears of a slowing Chinese economy.
Retail sales dropped 11% than last year during thanksgiving.
People’s Bank of China cut its one- year loan rate by 0.4percentage points
The ECB makes its policy announcement Thursday 11.21. Persistently low inflation and a flagging economic recovery have ramped up the pressure on the central bank.
GM and Chrysler on Tuesday posted their best Nov. U.S. sales figures in several years. Ford Motor Co. reported a decline.
OPEC Announcement
Announced that it declined to cut oil production.
Oil price dropped significantly on Friday.
Stock Pitch
Life Time Fitness, Inc.
Business Profile
Estb. 1992 in Chanhassen, MN
13 fitness centers
Designs, builds and operates fitness and athletic centers
Stock Summary
Prev. Close: 54.47
Open: 54.39
PE: 18.42
Beta: 1.44
Industry Statistics 2013
US HealthClub Industry Revenue: 2.4% growth past 5 years
US Health Club Memberships: 2.5% growth past 5 years
Core Members 2% growth past 5 years
Financials
in Q3 2014, total revenue grew 6.6%
Total revenue for the first nine months of 2014 grew 6.6%
Membership dues: 6% increase
In center revenue: 9% increase
Operating Cash Flow: 245M
Debt: Equity = 0.49
Expect 6.6% increase in revenue due to holiday season and expansion.
In the News
Dec 3: Acquired ShapeMed- wellness and non- surgical aesthetics company
Jan1-4: Million Workout Weekend
Holiday season memberships expected.
Forecast
They are expected to grow because of expansion
Suggest to be a short term holding

Market update
Monday: Japanese stocks suffered their worst daily drop in more than 3 months
The Nakkei Average tumbled 3%
U.S stocks mostly lowered on Monday due to Japanese recession
Walmart
WMT’s revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 0.9%
Net operating cash flow has significantly increased.
Sales grew in the home goods, apparel and health categories, as well as at the smaller Neighborhood Market stores. Online shopping was another bright spot
Target
Total sales increased 2.8%, beating the industry average
Gross profit at the U.S. segment inched up to 0.2%
Baker Hughes and Halliburton Merger
Halliburton, an oilfield- services provider, says it can slash 2 billion after acquiring its similar- sized rival
Actavis to buy Allergan
Bill Ackman’s stake in Allergan Inc. has almost doubled in revenue.
Actavis will purchase Botox maker Allergan in a 66 billion deal
The combined firm expects to have revenues of 23 billion in 2015

Stock pitch
J&J Snack Foods
Business overview
1971 Pennsauken, NJ
Consumer Goods; Processed& Packaged Goods
Manufactures, markets and distributes foods and beverages
U.S., Mexico, and Canada
Food Service, Retail supermarket and frozen Beverages
Seasonality Influence
 Stock summary
Small cap
P/E 26.9 (little bit higher than industry)
 Financials
Net sales increased 7% for the quarter and 6%  for the year
Very low in debt
Operating cash flow(100 mill)
Sufficient to fund future growth
Acquisitions can be a  potential growth
In the News
Partnership with Mondelez International
Oreo Churros (a new product):
The churros can be served with OREO cookie creme dip, supplied by J&J Snack Foods
 Risk and Competitors
Part of the risk with any food/ beverage/ service company is the ever- present threat of a downturn in consumer sentiment/spending
Wheat production
Given subsidiaries located and operating Canada, Mexico- risk lie in those markets
Competitors with similar products: Snyder Lance& Mrs. Fields
Forecasts
Growth: 5.84% in 2015, 6.50% in 2016
PE: 25.35 in 2015, 23.83 in 2016